I offer you the opportunity to be informed about my thoughts and my operational activity just because I need to generate extra cash to be employed in my investing activity. Most of the time, I will make you aware of the final output of my analysis, and only you will be responsible for the consequences by following it.
First of all, I would like to point out that I have not created this website for:
I do retain that all those who intend to deploy at least 50K in the equity stock markets, can benefit over the long haul from my opinions and suggestions. Once I have explained the NON-educational scope to you, I would like to underline that I will not show you my calculations and analysis for every decision taken. However I think is fair enough to show you my investing philosophy which leads my “modus operandi”.
During the last 30 years financial markets have acknowledged an exponential growth of brilliant minds, with more or less privileged informations, looking for the next profitable idea. At Wall Street and in the major business school, professors teach how to evaluate a company on the basis of its future performances. Despite this, it is possible (and the error margin is still consistent) to forecast a company results one year forward, the story is totally more complicated if we try to do the same 2,4,6,10 years from now. The uncertainty of applied models is very high because they call into question human judgement and what men can’t do: predict the future.
I do NOT forecast the future or even try to do it. I just avoid to be the Wizard of Ozz.
I reiterate what one of my mentors, Mark Howard, said many times:
“The mood swings of the securities markets resemble the movement of a pendulum. Although the midpoint of its arc best describes the location of the pendulum “on average,” it actually spends very little of its time there. Instead, it is almost always swinging toward or away from the extremes of its arc. But whenever the pendulum is near either extreme, it is inevitable that it will move back toward the midpoint sooner or later. In fact, it is the movement toward the extreme itself that supplies the energy for the swing back. Investment markets make the same pendulum-like swing:
- between euphoria and depression,
- between celebrating positive developments and obsessing over negatives, and thus
- between overpriced and underpriced.”
(Mark Howard – Letter to Oak Tree shareholders – 1991)
Pushed by my curiosity toward this world without bounds for our knowledge, I have always tried to read and learn as much as possible from the best Wall Street sharks. The multitude of roads that lead to success is just a confirmation of the boundless human creativity. There is not a magic formula, instead our success is highly correlated to our ability individuating a taylor-made suit that fits our personality. Following this pattern I have selected the ones who I retained to be closer to my way of thinking, and then I tried to grasp as much as I could of their investing strategies: O’Shaughnessy, W.Buffet, J. Greenblatt, M. Gabelli, B. Ackman, B. Graham, M. Howards .
“We don’t have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.”